Since 2020, the Reykjanes region in southwest Iceland has already seen three eruptions, and experts are predicting a fourth in the near future. It appears that a seismic swarm began on October 24, associated with a deformation of the ground surface in the area of the Svartsengi geothermal power station, which supplies hot water to the famous Blue Lagoon.
If this scenario were to play out, right in the middle of a huge peninsula, it could be dramatic.
The three irruptions that have already taken place occurred on Mount Fagradalsfjall, but the events are affecting the whole region.
As a result, the seismic swarm that began on October 24 is located around eight kilometers west of Fagradalsfjall, in the Mount Þorbjörn area, a few kilometers from the town of Grindavik. Since October 27, the area has also been affected by a swelling of the ground surface. And while ground deformation in the area has already occurred since the beginning of the period of unrest, the rate of deformation here appears to be greater… Seismicity combined with deformation attests to magmatic intrusion: magma would therefore be found at a depth of around four kilometers.
The Icelanders are expecting an eruption there in the short term, and the event is highly probable, so the aviation alert has been raised to yellow for the Reykjanes peninsula.
Iceland is a vast territory with a small population, and the Reykjanes region is known for its vast stretches of mineral desert: human infrastructure is therefore limited.
As a result, the risks associated with a possible eruption of the same type as previous ones, i.e. with very low explosivity, would be fairly limited. Except in a few strategic locations, such as the area where the disturbances are currently taking place.
At the foot of Mount Þorbjörn lies the Svartsengi geothermal power station, which supplies this part of the island with hot water and electricity. It also releases the hot water that feeds the baths in the adjoining Blue Lagoon, a particularly popular tourist spot in Iceland: an eruption here could therefore pose many problems.
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