The Copernicus Institute, the European climate monitoring organization, has updated its forecast maps for July, August and September. These three months look set to be much warmer than the usual average in Western Europe, with Southern Europe expected to be particularly affected by precipitation.
The data used by Copernicus to produce its forecasts is derived from several climate forecasting models from various international weather centers, including Météo France, the Met Office, The National Weather Service and ECMWF at the European level. Long-term trends give an overall view of the weather scenario that could be most likely, but they are only forecasts and may change according to the actual situation.
In terms of temperatures, July looks set to be warmer than average in northern and western France, the northern British Isles, Portugal and northern Spain. As in 2002, when London saw a record temperature of 40 ˚ C, the most marked variation will again concern the British Isles. August looks set to be identical to July, with a heat anomaly spreading across the British Isles and increasing in intensity.
As of 2022, this heat wave is also set to reach northwest France. In September, this strong heat is likely to continue, albeit to a lesser degree but still above average, particularly in Ireland and the west of the British Isles, in the north and northwest of France, in the west and south of Spain and in Portugal. No part of Europe is expected to be below average during this period.
Western Europe, as well as Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, will experience largely surplus heat between July and September. These forecasts are in line with historical temperature levels in the summer of 2022, but also with very long-term forecasts anticipating much faster warming in Western Europe than the global average.
In terms of precipitation, rainfall in July is expected to be in surplus in the southern half of France and Italy, and significantly in excess in Spain and Portugal, which were hit by drought in the spring.
The rest of Europe is not expected to see any exceptional rainfall events, although in places, such as the northern half of France, there could be above-average rainfall. For August and September, Copernicus forecasts do not anticipate any particular phenomena, but rainfall is likely to be stormy in August in Spain, Italy and the south of France.
On a European scale, forecasts point to wetter-than-average weather around the Mediterranean regions of Southern Europe. A climate forecasting model also anticipates drier-than-average weather over the UK. Overall, summer 2023 is expected to be similar to summer 2022, with persistent high pressure over Western Europe. Sea Weather forecasts higher-than-average water temperatures on all French coasts, especially those along the English Channel and the Atlantic.
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