Between 2050 and 2100, several countries in the Middle East and Southern Europe are expected to experience temperatures regularly approaching 50 ˚ C. A study published in May on the Nature Portfolio Journal website specifies that this evolution is mainly linked to human influence.
The researchers selected twelve regions in which temperatures are rising most rapidly, then compared their evolution using several climate simulations according to two scenarios, a first scenario without global warming linked to greenhouse gas emissions and a second scenario with global warming linked to human activities. According to the scenario forecasting a temperature rise of +2 ˚ C compared with the pre-industrial era, all continents apart from Antarctica will experience temperatures approaching or exceeding 50 ˚ C.
For some countries, these temperatures are likely to remain punctual, but for others, they will become regular. The probability of experiencing temperatures at or above 50 ˚ C every year from 2100 onwards will be very high for southern Spain, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Simulations show that this probability would be almost nil if global warming were not of anthropogenic origin, as was the case before the industrial revolution.
But with anthropogenic warming linked to human activities, the populations of these twelve countries are likely to experience temperatures at a level that had disappeared for thousands of years, and these temperatures will certainly reach or exceed 50 ˚ C every year as early as 2100. By the end of the century, these regions are also likely to have to endure one to two months of very intense heat per year.
Currently, only Saudi Arabia regularly experiences temperatures reaching or exceeding the 50 °C threshold. In the Gulf countries concerned, simulation results show that this temperature will become very common by 2050. Only Spain will be spared, and the 50 ˚ C threshold should be reached only fairly rarely.
Researchers indicate that a climate migration has already begun, moving up from the Maghreb towards Europe, starting in southern Spain, and there are several indications that this climate migration will certainly continue to move up toward Northern Europe. The climate change that is beginning to affect the Middle East and southern Spain is just the beginning of the change that Europe will experience if global warming is not curbed. This new trend is already materializing during certain episodes, such as in the summer of 2022 when temperatures reached 40 ˚ C in London.
The authors of the study also wanted to provide counter-arguments to those who might think that Middle Eastern countries are already used to high heat and that the worsening of temperatures is only relatively slight. They take the example of India, a country whose population is already accustomed to a hot, humid climate and harsh conditions without global warming, but which suffered a heatwave in the spring of 2022, causing thousands of deaths. Extreme temperatures have consequences not only for health but also for agriculture, the economy and the displacement of populations, representing different challenges for the years to come, to which it will be necessary to provide a response.
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